If most bankruptcy is induced by external factors — divorce, health problems, and job loss being the most commonly mentioned — we still don’t really know why people call lawyers when they do. Is it too many calls from a collection agent? Or perhaps a collection lawsuit is filed. I suspect that most families use the legal system only when they are already involved in it. This question of course can be addressed through surveys, but I am considering a project designed to shed some light on this question using quantitative data about bankruptcy filings.
Weekly bankruptcy filings over the last several years reveal several patterns. For example, at the end of each year, Chapter 7 filings fall steeply during December but rise shortly after the first of the year. Total filings fall sharply after the first week of the year and then increase steadily through the first quarter (until April 15). Chapter 13 filings, by contrast, are more evenly distributed throughout the year. Notably, both Chapter 7 and Chapter 13 filings show a monthly peak.
This led me to wonder what would cause bankruptcy filings to surge on a monthly basis. In Texas where I live the obvious answer is foreclosures. Because all foreclosures in Texas happen on the first Tuesday of the month, it might be possible to isolate the share of bankruptcy filings motivated by foreclosure avoidance. Georgia has a similar statute, so I plan to collect the number of Chapter 7 and Chapter 13 filings by individuals in Texas and Georgia on each date from January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2006. The statistical analysis might be tricky, especially if foreclosure-motivated filings are a small share of filings. And I don’t see any easy way to account for differences in state foreclosure law or practice. Still, a discernible rise in the last few days before the foreclosure date might quantify a share of filings attributable to foreclosures.
Looking forward, what would it tell us about bankruptcy filings if we know how many were filed to protect homes? Also, how can we quantify bankruptcy filings that might be attributable to other causes? Ultimately, I would be interested in trying to isolate the filings caused by informal collection practices — people trying to escape what they perceive as harassment. The policy initiative I would like to explore is the idea that borrowers would benefit if lenders were forced to initiate formal collection procedures more quickly. When I interviewed collection attorneys several years back, one of the things I learned is just how much information collection calls can produce. People are willing to give out bank account numbers and places of employment that enable the formal collection actions to proceed. If the caller can persuade the debtor to make even a single $10 payment, the collector then has access to the acccount information from that check. It is not clear how much of this activity is efficient. More fundamentally, as I argue elsewhere, procedures designed to push individuals into bankruptcy more rapidly might be beneficial.
