In order for stablecoins to operate like money, there cannot be any issuer credit risk. Otherwise coins will be discounted based on the financial strength of the issuer. That will cause transactional friction because buyers and sellers might not agree on the appropriate discount. It also means that different coins cannot possibly be good delivery for each other.
The GENIUS Act tries to reduce issuer credit risk as much as possible. First, it requires payment stablecoins to be backed by reserves and creates a regulatory oversight system to create some confidence that the claimed reserves are in fact there. That’s basically replicating what the National Bank Act of 1864 did when it created national bank notes and a federal bank regulator to inspect the national banks that issued those notes.
Second, the GENIUS Act has a provision regarding the insolvency of a payment stablecoin issuer. It aims to reduce credit risk by saying that the holders of payment stablecoins have first priority, coming ahead of all other claimants, for the issuer’s reserves. And second, it directs the bankruptcy court to pay out on the stablecoins as soon as possible, namely within 14 days of “the required hearing.” The idea here is to ensure that there is minimal liquidity disruption.
Here’s the thing. The GENIUS Act fails miserably at both of these bankruptcy goals. Holders of payment stablecoins actually will rank fifth in a bankruptcy distribution, coming after (1) repo and margin lender claims, (2) the DIP lender, (3) the bankruptcy professionals via the DIP lender’s carve-out, and (4) set-off claims from depositaries and brokers. Those claims will gobble up a huge chunk of any reserves, so recoveries for payment stablecoin holders will be severely diminished.
Moreover, because of the nature of the DIP lender and professionals’ claims, no distribution to the payment stablecoin holders will be possible until well into the case, if not the very end of it. That might mean waiting months or years for a distribution.
Let me put it bluntly: a stablecoin issuer bankruptcy won’t be like an insured deposit claim against an FDIC insured bank, where you get 100¢ on the dollar back incredibly fast (perhaps next day). In a payment stablecoin issuer bankruptcy there will be a large haircut on the stablecoins and the payment won’t be any time soon.
